Likely range in two bands: bold where half of a player's comparable careers landed, thin where 8 in 10 did. On every card, player page and projection chart
Next to the board: how far off the projections are against "he repeats last season" and Marcel, how often the trade machine called real trades right in every league, and the likely range by position. How trades are priced moves to Background
Background: the accuracy tables are now plots, one league at a time: projected vs what happened, R² by league and by position, the range by age, real trades on one chart, how trades are priced. The tables are still there under Show the numbers
The likely-range check now shows 80 to 82% inside in every league, as calibrated; the page had shown an older 85 to 96%
Prospects: what each grade became shows with the Prospects view, its tables folded away
3.0 · October 2026
A women's section: a Men's / Women's switch. The WNBA moves over; the PWHL and NWSL join in beta
PWHL: valued from the league's box scores on an NHL scale, projected with NHL comparables, priced on real pay where it's public; newer deals are estimated and marked est. A pick is priced at what the draftee taken there is worth
NWSL: valued from American Soccer Analysis' goals added, projected with MLS comparables. Salaries are confidential, so values leave pay out; on 57 real trades that reads truer than any estimate
Both borrow the men's league's trade weights until they have enough trades of their own
NWSL: older players hold less of their value than their MLS comparables, and a first-year player's next season leans a little on her college line
Prospects: PWHL draftees graded by their college line; NWSL college players to watch
Cards: photos, career stats, awards, titles, playoff history and injuries
2.1.1 · October 2026
NHL: a star's play past what the max salary pays counts from 70% of the max, not 85%: McDavid $38M to $47M, MacKinnon $66M to $79M, Makar and Celebrini $69M to $82M, Kucherov $26M to $34M. The biggest trades on the record fit 3% better
Tested and left out: NBA centres on BPM alone, NBA playing time after 33 from a player's own last seasons, the top of the NFL receiver pay curve from the biggest deals, and NFL rookies' week-one depth chart
2.1 · October 2026
Age, measured in every league: for the top fifth of players, what the model projected against what they did, by age band. Where it was off, a rule fixes it, and each rule had to predict past seasons better
NFL: stars 33 and older were projected 20 to 38% too low and players under 26 13 to 18% too high. Older stars now get 15% more a season and under-26s 12% less for two seasons: Stafford $55M to $75M, Trent Williams $26M to $31M; Purdy $143M to $132M, Maye $127M to $115M, Stroud $74M to $63M. Allen, Mahomes, Burrow and Lamar don't move. The trade record fits 4 to 6% better
NBA: stars 30 to 32 were projected 18% too high for the next season, now 10% less for that season only (Jokic $202M to $192M, Giannis $107M to $101M); DARKO counts half for players 33 and older, since it rates play per minute and ignores age and health (Kawhi $90M to $80M, LeBron $52M to $56M)
MLB: players 33 and older were projected 20 to 40% too high, now 6% less a season from next season on: Judge $37M to $15M, Betts $22M to $8M, Harper $5M to -$6M; Ohtani doesn't move
MLB: a prospect on no list is worth about $0.6M in old trades and on the Transactions page, not $0
A player 37 or older costs no salary in the seasons his comparables had retired
Trade machine: Get offers and What would it take? never ask for a team's stars, a top-5 pick from the last two drafts or anyone far better than what's sent, and use at most four pieces; each player has one price with the playoff run in its own column
Cards: draft-day grades, team tools, NFL pass rush, pass blocking, tough catches, throwaways and targets; MLB Statcast; NHL net-front and shutdown play; NBA charges drawn. Each card carries one offensive and one defensive style word
Tested and left out: NHL and WNBA re-sign rights, a third season of games in the NBA comps, a steeper MLB decline from 30
2.0 · October 2026
An audit of every number on the site, league by league: the board against the contracts on file, every move since 1.8 against its rule, the projections, the archetypes, the prospects, the trade record, the picks, the pages. What it found is fixed; the fixes are rules, not numbers
NHL: retained salary now comes off what the acquiring team pays on the board as it did on the record (Seth Jones $3M to $7M, Kadri $1M to $3M); five deadline deals that CapWages booked to a third club are back on the record, the same trade is counted once, and a one-sided leg of a three-team deal is not a gift; Pietrangelo, Couture and Ellis carry their long-term injured reserve
NBA: a projection no longer rests on one comparable (LeBron's at 41 did: $68M to $50M, with a range again); every newest draftee is priced from his slot (two second-rounders at -$3M are $4M); terminated contracts are off the board, Yang Hansen is on it; young forwards were projected 8% a season too generously from the third year and older forwards 9% too stingily, measured and corrected (Giannis $93M to $108M, Knueppel $162M to $145M, Flagg $120M to $109M)
MLB: a signing bonus is the signing club's, taken off the acquirer's hit evenly over the deal (Soto $31M to $15M, Guerrero $55M to $60M); on the record a veteran's old deal no longer runs past a pay cut and a just-drafted prospect is priced as his pick; prospects are one row each and this summer's draftees have their clubs; the record fits better on every measure (the biggest trades 11% closer)
NFL: 51 of this year's 257 draftees, Zach Allen and Kenneth Walker were missing from the board (no OverTheCap link), retired players were on it, and Justin Fields was charged the Jets' $20M instead of Kansas City's $11M; running backs fade 20% a season from the third year, safeties 9%, linebackers 7%, tackles 6%, measured on what players of each position actually did (Gibbs $52M to $44M, Robinson $52M to $44M); draftees are anchored to their slot by position
WNBA: Awa Fam is on the board, prospects' draft years are right, injury overrides apply to 2027, picks on the record are priced as a team knew them, and the comps under-projected years three and on by 4 to 12% a season by position, corrected; a cap check in the trade machine
MLS: players sold or loaned abroad are off the board (Berhalter, Pec), a Designated Player or U22 designation is not erased by a later blank row, 52 trades whose other side was undisclosed allocation money are no longer scored as gifts (118 scored of 170 on file), and Transfermarkt contracts are linked by birth date where the name order differed
Archetypes: a forward listed at centre is named as a big (Holmgren was a 3-and-D Wing), the Three-Point style word needs at least average shooting (Draymond Green was a Three-Point Lockdown Defender), and the guard cluster named for shooting efficiency is an Efficient Scorer, not a Sharpshooter (Gilgeous-Alexander)
Two chips: Champions on the reigning champion's team label (Knicks, Hurricanes, Seahawks, Dodgers, Aces, Inter Miami), and Rental on an expiring deal worth something on a team out of the race
NFL receivers and tight ends are archetypes from their tools now (yards, big plays, depth of target, yards after the catch, target share: Alpha Receiver, Deep Threat, YAC Weapon, Target TE, Inline TE), and every NFL card shows those tools as percentiles, with a quarterback's air yards, sack avoidance and ball security and a back's explosive runs and first downs per carry; quarterbacks and backs keep their rule archetypes
A player between two archetypes shows both with his share of each on the card (Efficient Scorer 80%, Offensive Engine 20%); signing grades read a B as paid what he is worth and a C as a mild overpay (Mahomes's deal a C, not a D)
Shorter copy: the glossary, the trade machine's notes and the tooltips say the same in fewer words
Site: the Background page's record counts and backtests are this run's; the yes meter's track record is measured the way the live meter decides; the NHL, NBA, MLB, WNBA and NFL backtests now each carry a long-horizon term where their own held-out test asked for one (MLB's ramp at 27 measured and not adopted)
1.9 · October 2026
The trade record of every league is bigger, and the numbers come from it: NBA 1,063 trade sides (was 292 trades), MLB 955 trades (was 430), NHL 1,751 (was 1,564), WNBA 246 (was 61), MLS 170 (was 118)
NBA: trades of three or more teams count (Harden, Durant, Lillard, Towns, Doncic), a draftee traded on draft night is his pick, and the market since 2006 says a star's play beyond his contract is worth about two thirds of its face: Wembanyama $405M to $294M, Gilgeous-Alexander $323M to $238M, Jokic $260M to $206M; a star's rights beyond his deal count in full; the NBA discounts future seasons 20% a year like the other leagues
NBA picks: the chart is fit on 111 pick-for-pick trades (a flatter top, second-rounders cheaper, a draft ahead 7% less), and a traded pick is valued as unknown until its lottery has been held
A bad contract is worth at worst 2% of the cap a year left in the NBA, NHL and MLB (was a flat tenth), what teams actually pay to move one: a one-year mistake costs a second-round pick, a five-year one a tenth of the cap (Poole -$15M to -$3M, Keegan Murray -$15M)
MLB: the record runs from 2010 with each player's service time setting his control years and the prospect lists of those years (FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, John Sickels) grading the minor leaguers; relievers are paid 78 cents on the dollar (Fuentes $58M to $49M); a projection declines from its third season on, by age (27 and over lose 3 to 13% a season by position), which the record and the backtest both pay for: Tatis $176M to $133M, Guerrero $79M to $55M, Soto and Ohtani lower, players 26 and under unchanged; inside a FanGraphs grade a prospect now has his own grade from his minor-league line, age for level and risk, so two 50s are not the same number (50-grade starters $18M to $25M, 45s $8M to $13M)
Prospects in the NHL, NBA, WNBA and NFL carry a 20-80 grade of ours from the draft slot and the pre-league line, calibrated to what draftees went on to do: McKenna 75, Schaefer 66, Knueppel 80, Flagg 77, Miles 78; a first overall ordinarily grades 63 in the NHL and 68 in the NBA
NFL: the record pays a quarterback's production at 86 cents on the dollar; every quarterback down 15% (Allen $176M to $150M, Goff $127M to $109M); rookies are projected from their real draft slot again (the college slot measured off), so last year's linemen with no college line move too
NHL: retained salary is on the record (235 retentions since 2013) and 209 trades the old feed missed; goalies as before
WNBA: the record runs from 1999 with contracts by the CBA's rules where no salary file exists; 375 phantom expansion-team contracts removed from the salary data
The card and the trade machine show each value's likely range (the 10th to 90th percentile of the simulated careers); a side's range in the machine combines its pieces
Measured and left off, with the numbers in the method notes: an availability model from injury history, the college line as a prior on young players, a coach effect on quarterbacks, a lower share for unknown picks, the rookie-scale rows, the second-year glide, the playoff run off, longer and shorter half-lives, four fixes to the MLB middle
1.8 · October 2026
1.7 (the values) and 1.8 (the site's rules) ship together.
MLB relievers: the trade record pays a reliever about nine tenths of what his production is worth, and a reliever's play beyond what a top contract pays no longer earns the star premium: Didier Fuentes $98M to $58M, Grant Taylor $88M to $61M, Mason Miller $66M to $34M; Wetherholt ($88M) and the hitters above him do not move, and no reliever is left in the top 50
NHL goalies: the trade record pays a goalie about three quarters of what his play is worth, the same shape as relievers: Logan Thompson $41M to $30M, Dustin Wolf $41M to $30M, Hellebuyck $32M to $23M (Shesterkin's $8M is his injury, below); the skaters do not move and no goalie is left in the top 30
A bad contract is worth at worst what it costs to dump, a tenth of the cap, in MLB and the NHL as in the NBA since 1.5: Burnes -$71M to -$25M, Trea Turner -$47M to -$23M, Kyle Tucker -$45M to -$20M; the NFL's non-guaranteed seasons were never counted against a player
NHL stars on entry-level deals keep their restricted years: an accrued season is now games dressed, so Matvei Michkov ($21M to $28M) and Will Smith ($23M to $31M) carry four restricted seasons instead of two
NBA: the trade record now runs from 2006 (Basketball-Reference) instead of 2017, 620 trades instead of 292, with recent trades weighing more (a five-year half-life) because the old league paid far less for a star; the board barely moves (Wembanyama $405M, Gilgeous-Alexander $323M)
MLB prospects: the FanGraphs grade is now blended with what the minor-league line says (a ridge on the grade, age for level and the prior season's line, held-out rank correlation .22 to .24 for hitters, .20 to .23 for pitchers); the line moves about a third of graded prospects a step, mostly down: Konnor Griffin $69M to $54M, JJ Wetherholt $85M to $88M
Cash in MLB trades counts: 38 trades where a team paid to move a contract (Arenado, Scherzer, Correa, Hosmer) are on the record for the first time; the dump floor stays a tenth of the cap, where the worst of those dumps start (they cost 11 to 19% of it)
MLB arbitration years count two and a half times the expected award in trade value again (1.5 had eased it to one and a half): teams in the trade record pay that much less for controllable players everywhere, at the deadline and in the winter, in every year since 2020 (Soto to San Diego, Tucker to Chicago, Mason Miller to San Diego): Skenes $129M to $101M, Henderson $57M to $34M, De La Cruz $127M to $101M; Witt unchanged
Injuries: ESPN's injury report feeds the model every week, and the games a player is expected to miss come out of his value (Shesterkin, Hunter Greene and Jalen Hurts out for the season; Mark Williams back in February); the card says so. The one thing in the model set by a report rather than measured on the trade record
Signings: the surplus beside a grade is the deal's own, what his play is worth on the market less what he is paid, the numbers the grade is made of (Mahomes's 2026 deal: -$88M over seven seasons in today's cap dollars and a D, while his trade value stays +$160M because NFL trades count salary at thirty cents on the dollar)
Trade machine: a player with a no-trade clause (NHL no-move and no-trade clauses, MLB clauses and 10-and-5 rights) or an NBA player still inside the league's waiting period after a new deal carries a badge on the trade (he would have to waive it, or the date to pass; the trade still builds), and an NFL player's signing-bonus proration stays with the team that trades him as dead money, so only the rest of his cap hit moves in the cap check; the NBA cap check also flags the Stepien rule (a team can't be left without a first-round pick in two straight drafts)
1.6d · October 2026
MLS: a contract costs what it charges the salary budget, not what it pays. A Designated Player or a TAM buy-down counts at the maximum charge, a young DP or U22 Initiative player at $150-200K, everyone else at his pay, plus a quarter of the cash above the charge; the stars on big deals stop reading as burdens (Messi, de Paul, Bouanga, Evander), and a mid-priced player who gives less than his charge now reads as the cost he is
MLS: Transfermarkt's market value sits beside the model's on the record, weighted by what real MLS trades paid for it (a few cents on the euro); the card shows the budget charge
Signing grades count the star premium in every league: a max deal for a true star is no longer an overpay because the salary curve tops out at the max (Durant's extension and A'ja Wilson's deal grade on their play, not the curve's ceiling)
Background page: the R² line says what it measures (how much of the next one to three seasons the projections got right, on seasons the model had not seen; 0 is the league average for everyone, 1 is exact)
1.6c · October 2026
The record gets this week's trades (Marvin Harrison Jr. to Houston, Caleb Jones and Daniel Laatsch to Pittsburgh); ESPN's "second- and seventh-round" pick lists now count every pick
Background page: shorter tier, archetype and style-word notes, and a line on how a style word is earned (one ratio stat far past the archetype's norm; a player in the usual mix, Bouchard, stays plain Puck Mover)
A regression of projections by seasons played was measured on the backtest seasons and not adopted: the bias flips sign from year to year, so values are unchanged; the page's version label now follows the release notes
1.6b · October 2026
Star tiers: the ladder weighs recent seasons most (the latest of the last five counts five times the oldest), the Elite rung is about 15% wider, and a rookie year alone counts only at 80+: Bouchard and Cristopher Sánchez are Superstars, Flagg stays Elite, seven NFL rookies rated 59 to 75 wait for a second season
Playoffs: a full run is worth half a regular season of production a year, which no contract pays for; a player's value carries the league-average run (a tenth of a season a year in the NHL, NBA and NFL, a twentieth in MLB), the trade machine each team's expected run by its label, and the trade record the run the receiving team actually made: stars up 8 to 13% (Makar $59M to $68M, Wembanyama $379M to $403M, Mahomes $148M to $166M, Ohtani $122M to $135M), a star on an expiring deal up a little (Kucherov $26M to $28M)
Style words: the archetype is the role, and the word in front of it is the style, from a ratio stat the archetype is not built on where he stands out against his own archetype's typical: Pass-First Puck Mover (Quinn Hughes), Goal-Scoring Puck Mover (Makar), Ball-Dominant Sharpshooter (Gilgeous-Alexander), Rim-Protecting Offensive Hub (Wembanyama), Patient Slugger (Soto), Innings-Eating Complete Arsenal (Cristopher Sánchez), Quick-Game Pocket Passer (Goff), Pass-Catching Bell Cow (Gibbs), Clinical Inside Forward (Messi); about two players in five have one, and a card's headline now reads tier, word and archetype
1.6a · October 2026
MLB: star play beyond what a top contract pays counts from 90% of the max (was 95%): Judge $25M to $38M, Soto $46M to $70M, Ohtani $108M to $123M, Witt $163M to $198M
NHL: a team holding a star's rights expects to re-sign him, so 60% of his play beyond the max keeps its value for four seasons past his contract, as the NBA's Bird rights do: McDavid $29M to $33M, Kucherov $19M to $26M, Quinn Hughes $14M to $18M
Archetypes: a group that leans on a tool another group owns joins it instead of taking a made-up name, and a sliver of a position can no longer take a name: NHL goalies are Steady Workhorses, Brick Walls and Steady Netminders instead of 94 of 98 "Consistency Specialist"; Physical Specialist forwards are Power Forwards, Command Specialist pitchers Complete Arsenals; WNBA centres are named against the position's typical profile
Tiers by position: every position now has its Superstar and Elite minimums, and a position's top-rated player is at least Elite: Connor Hellebuyck, Cal Raleigh, Breanna Stewart and Rodrigo de Paul are Superstars; Logan Thompson, Cade Cunningham, Gabriel Moreno and Sebastian Berhalter Elite
1.5 · October 2026
MLB prospects on big-league contracts are worth a blend of their grade and their comps by games played: McGonigle $184M to $92M, Pratt $136M to $38M; the trade record values them the same way, and the fit on real trades improves
MLB trade record: a player traded before his next one-year arbitration deal was signed keeps the seasons he still owed (Soto in 2022 had three, not one)
MLB: a trade discount of 20% a season (was 10%; the NFL's and NHL's rate) and arbitration seasons at 1.5x the award (was 2.5x): Henderson $24M to $46M, Skenes $85M to $106M
NBA Bird rights: a star's play beyond what the max can pay keeps its value past his contract: Jokić $162M to $250M, Dončić $167M to $195M, above the rookie-deal forwards
NHL: a signed player's restricted years count, as draft rights already did: Michkov $8M to $16M, McKenna $20M to $32M
NHL: star play beyond what a top contract pays counts from 85% of the max (was 95%): MacKinnon $45M to $60M, Makar $43M to $60M, level with Hutson and Celebrini
Archetypes: the broad middle of a position no longer swallows most of it (63% of WNBA guards were All-Round); all-round means a flat profile
NFL receivers, backs, tight ends, linemen and defensive backs below the headline tiers are named by the tool they lean on (Possession or Big-Play Receiver, Free or Strong Safety, Space Eater)
WNBA: the cap grows 9% a year from 2027 under the 2026 CBA
NBA: a bad contract is worth at worst what it costs to dump (about $16M), as the trade market prices them
Likely ranges: the upside is set per league so 80% of outcomes land inside (it was 85-95%); the published value and the downside do not move
1.4 · October 2026
NFL draftees: a rookie's value blends what his pick cost with what players taken there have returned (Mendoza $141M to $72M, Tate $141M to $79M)
MLB: a player who debuted after late April is under club control for a seventh season (Skenes through 2030)
NBA calibration prices a just-drafted player at his slot, as the board does; the fit on real trades improves
Archetypes: a player's second archetype shows on his card, names are unique within a position, and all-rounders are named as such
Ladder tiers keep room for every position: NHL goalies and defencemen, MLB pitchers and catchers, centres
Team labels lean less on last season once the new one is under way
1.3.2 · October 2026
NBA rookies: a qualifying-offer season no longer counts as a cheap contract year (it was a fifth of a first-rounder's value)
Sources that block or change rarely (Spotrac, EliteProspects, drafts, payrolls) are visited monthly, not weekly
1.3.1 · October 2026
NFL rookies: this season's games now count, by how they compare with what a rookie at that slot and position usually does
NFL rookies: a likely range on every card, from what past picks near that slot and position became
1.3 · October 2026
Trends: the week's and the season's biggest risers and fallers in trade value
Player cards in a season under way: what his games so far have done to his projection and trade value
Team pages show the NHL and NBA season under way
1.2 · October 2026
Transactions: recent trades, signings and free agents get their own page
Draft picks: who really holds each NBA, NFL and WNBA pick, rebuilt from real trades, with protected picks and swap rights
NHL picks: acquired picks were missing; every team now has all the picks it holds, with protections spelled out
NFL trades, traded picks and signing dates through this week, from Wikipedia and ESPN
The trade machine offers the picks a team actually holds, in every league
Signings: new NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL and WNBA contracts, graded A+ to F
Cap checks in the trade machine for the NFL, the WNBA and the MLS salary budget and, as a luxury-tax check, MLB
NFL contract terms: guarantees, years that aren't guaranteed, fifth-year options
NFL picks traded before a draft now count at their real slot
MLB arbitration years cost what players are expected to get: MLB Trade Rumors' projection, else his last salary plus the usual raise, never above the record. An award not yet settled counts 2.5x in trade value, the way teams trade those years
Later seasons count less, the way teams trade them: 20% a year in the NFL and NHL, 10% in MLB, the NBA, WNBA and MLS
NFL and WNBA draft picks: later seasons of a pick's career count 10% less a year
NFL: salary counts at 30% in trade value, so stars on big deals hold their own against draft picks, as in real trades
Fixes from a full audit: phantom NFL contract years, MLB players' current teams and stale contract years, NHL buyouts no longer counted as live deals
The trade machine's "would do it" now agrees with how rare it calls the deal
Team totals include the picks and prospects each team holds
NFL fifth-year options priced at what the league's options really pay
MLB player options and opt-outs, NBA qualifying offers, MLS players' current clubs
NBA salary matching uses the CBA's brackets; signing grades compare what a player is worth with what he's paid
A season-progress bar for each league: how much of the season is played, and why values drift down as it goes
The column filters fold away until you press Filter
Pick a colour for the site, or your team's; otherwise it changes every week
NBA: each position priced on its own contracts, and production measured more by BPM, less by Win Shares, which flatter rebounding centers
New draftees are worth about what their pick was until they play, ordered within their class by our projection
This season so far counts: NFL, NHL and NBA projections move toward how each player is playing, a little more every week
Simpler wording across the site, and fixes from a full audit
The weekly refresh keeps going when one source is down
1.1 · October 2026
Recent trades: every league's latest real trades, who won on the day and what the players are worth now
Free agents view, position filters and an Expiring filter on the board
Get offers and Trade for him from any player card
Contract terms: no-move and no-trade clauses, options, opt-outs, and what he becomes when it ends
Cap check in the trade machine: NBA payroll against the cap, tax and aprons, NHL cap space
Shared trade links preview with the players' names and a player card
The trade machine's track record on real trades, a glossary, press / to search, and a way to report a correction
Team pages with ages, cap hits, years, payroll, picks and prospects
1.0.3 · October 2026
MLB positions from where they played: LF, CF, RF
NFL linemen's sides and safeties from depth charts
1.0.2 · October 2026
Real positions everywhere: C, LW, RW, PG, SG, SS, 2B, CB, CM and more